March 2010 ended a couple of hours ago. I am not actively trading, but I love to watch the chart to remember those good old days or is it bad old days when I was trading. I usually watch the chart to see if I can predict the direction of the currency. If I get good in it, I would start trading again. But in the mean time, I would be mind trading i.e. putting mental enter and stop loss positions without trading.

I was looking at the chart from FXDD metatrader platform. It looked like there were good trades to take. the chart was showing that there was a reversal on GBPJPY by showing a pin bar. So anytime there is a pin bar, that means it is time to go in opposite direction. But I was wrong.

From the chart, you can see where I highlighted and put a thumb down arrow. I thought those bars were pin bars. They are not exactly or the textbook version of a pin bar, but it had some characteristics.  I thought that was a short. So I told myself that if I am still trading, i would short it and put a top loss above the pin bar. To my surprise it went higher. Then at the second fake pin bar, I said that it was a short. I did the mental trades again, and it went higher. It was then i told myself that I should stop trying to short it, and join the trend which was bullish. I couldn’t enter because I wasn’t seeing an enter point. So I stayed out.

Well, tomorrow is Non-farm Payroll. The USA economy is improving. The auto industry is seeing rise in sales. So the economy is bullish. this means that dollar is bullish. That is why GBPJPY is just acting like a beast. I think traders have already factored the bullish NFP. Right now, if you look at the chart above, you see that GBPJPY stopped at a resistance area. It was the former high on 17th Feb 2010. I guess that traders took their profit. Now the currency is falling down gradually to gain momentum to break that resistance line. No one know the outcome of NFP. I don’t know is GBPJPY has began its gradual decent or it is gaining momentum. Tomorrow will tell us.